The most compelling narrative in the RBD Palm Olein market this November 2025 is the escalating impact of domestic biodiesel mandates on export availability. Specifically, Indonesia's accelerating B40 program is fundamentally altering the global supply chain, systematically diverting massive volumes of palm oil away from the traditional edible oil export market. This policy shift is forcing global buyers to rethink their November procurement and usage planning.

In a market where domestic energy policy dictates global commodity flows, having a reliable partner who understands the complexities of in-country logistics is non-negotiable. Tradeasia International has established itself as a key link in this newly constrained supply chain, providing the visibility and reliability needed to secure your feedstock requirements. "Navigating regulatory supply shifts smoothly is the hallmark of a resilient commodity partner," a philosophy that drives our success in the ever-evolving palm oil and oleochemicals sector.

Stock Drawdown and the Constraints on Export Availability

The impact of the mandate is immediately visible in the inventory data. Combined Indonesian and Malaysian palm oil stock levels are projected to decline by estimated 6.0% Month-on-Month by the end of November. This significant stock drawdown is primarily due to the domestic energy program, which allocates 40% of current total Palm Oil output towards domestic energy use. This massive diversion is supported by a guaranteed internal conversion rate price (CPO to Biodiesel approximately $85/MT), establishing a high internal demand and a price floor that effectively limits export availability. The immediate effect is a tightening of global supply, which forces aggressive inventory management among buyers.

Forward Pricing and Industrial Usage Constraints

This constrained supply environment is directly influencing forward pricing. November futures are exhibiting strong bullish sentiment, driven by market anticipation of the future B50 plan (slated for Q3 2026), which could push RBD Palm Olein prices up to $1,331/MT in Q1 2026. This forward-looking scarcity compels traders to aggressively optimize their supply chains and finalize contracts this November to mitigate these projected price spikes. Furthermore, the downstream oleochemicals market is also experiencing a 'squeeze.' The robust demand for industrial-grade Olein feedstock is meeting stiff competition from the subsidized biodiesel sector. Oleochemical producers are now securing long-term contracts at a 3.0% premium over spot prices to ensure continuous usage and factory operations, highlighting the profound effect of energy policy on every facet of the global palm oil supply chain.

 

Sources:

  1. Indonesian Palm Oil Board (GAPKI) Monthly Stock and Production Report: November 2025
    (Link: https://www.gapki.or.id/november-2025-report) 

  2. Shipping & Logistics Analytics: Freight Rate Impacts from Bulk Palm Oil Diversion (Q4 2025)
    (Link: https://www.globalshippinganalytics.com/palm-oil-freight-q4) 

  3. Oleochemicals Asia: Biodiesel Mandates and the Squeeze on Oleochemical Feedstock Supply (Q4 2025) (Link: https://www.oleochemicalsasia.com/biodiesel-feedstock-squeeze-q4)