The third quarter of 2025 has been a defining period for procurement managers in the personal care sector, forcing a strategic re-evaluation of the raw materials for cetyl palmitate. The market has become a high-stakes tug-of-war between its primary feedstocks—palmitic acid and cetyl alcohol—with volatile price spreads dictating sourcing strategies and squeezing profit margins.

In such a dynamic environment, navigating the complexities of the oleochemical market requires more than just access to data; it demands a partner with deep, actionable intelligence. At Tradeasia International, we believe that “navigating the palm market isn't just about price; it's about foresight.” Our role is to provide clients with that critical foresight, transforming market volatility into a strategic opportunity for smarter sourcing.

The Widening Chasm Between Palm and Coconut

The most telling trend this quarter has been the significant price chasm between Crude Palm Oil (CPO) and Crude Coconut Oil (CNO). As of the final week of September, CPO futures for October delivery have held firm around $985 per metric ton. In stark contrast, CNO, which dictates the cost of coconut-derived cetyl alcohol, saw prices peak at $1,170/tonne before settling at a still-high $1,125/tonne. This has created a sustained price gap of over $140/tonne, offering a clear and compelling financial incentive for manufacturers to lean heavily on palm-derived raw materials for their formulations.

Production Ramps Up as Strategy Shifts

This price advantage is not just a theoretical number; it's actively reshaping production lines. Data from industry sources like Palm Chemicals reveals that Indonesian refineries ramped up their output of palmitic acid to an estimated 460,000 metric tons in September, a 5.2% increase from the previous month. This surge is a direct response to favorable CPO pricing. Concurrently, our analysis shows a decisive 9% swing by major European manufacturers towards using 100% palm-based cetyl alcohol since July. As we look towards Q4, analysts from ICIS project this CPO-CNO spread will remain, solidifying the strategic advantage for companies that have secured their palm-derivative supply chains.

Sources:

  1. Reuters Commodity Desk: Q3 Commodity Futures Report

  2. Independent Commodity Intelligence Services (ICIS): Oleochemicals Market Analysis: September 2025

  3. Palm Chemicals: Palm Derivative Production Data