The global Refined, Bleached, and Deodorized (RBD) palm oil market has undergone significant changes between 2020 and the projected horizon of 2040. This evolution is shaped by sustainability demands, government policies, and continuous innovation, all of which are redefining production, trade, and market opportunities. For businesses and trading companies, the landscape offers growth potential but also complex challenges that require careful navigation.

A Growing Market Shaped by Policy and Sustainability

In 2020, the global palm oil market—where RBD palm oil represents a major segment—was valued at USD 57.42 billion. Forecasts indicate steady growth with a 5.1% CAGR between 2024 and 2028, pushing the market to nearly USD 98.9 billion by 2030. Indonesia continues to dominate as the largest producer and exporter, supported by favorable government policies and the strong contribution of small and medium-scale producers. The use of palm oil in biofuels, alongside its established roles in food, cosmetics, and industrial applications, has further strengthened global demand.

Sustainability certifications remain central to market credibility. The Roundtable on Sustainable Palm Oil (RSPO), a voluntary certification, and Indonesian Sustainable Palm Oil (ISPO), a mandatory national standard, both drive traceability and environmental accountability across the supply chain. Efforts to harmonize these frameworks aim to meet the expectations of international markets while pushing producers toward sustainable practices that limit deforestation and improve social impacts. Yet, adoption remains uneven, as around 50% of RSPO-certified palm oil is still traded as conventional oil without added premium, highlighting persistent challenges in consumer demand for certified products.

Policy and trade regulations also shape the market’s direction. The EU’s Renewable Energy Directive II (RED II) initially targeted the phase-out of palm oil-based biofuels by 2030 due to land-use concerns. However, a 2025 WTO ruling declared parts of the EU policy discriminatory toward Indonesian palm oil, slowing the pace of restrictive measures such as the EU Deforestation Regulation (EUDR). Meanwhile, regional agreements in Asia and biofuel mandates in the U.S. continue to influence trade flows, creating both uncertainty and opportunity for producers who invest in sustainability and compliance.

Innovation and Market Prospects Toward 2040

Innovation plays a decisive role in maintaining competitiveness. Advanced refining technologies are improving oil quality while lowering environmental impacts. At the same time, expanding applications in oleochemicals, cosmetics, and biodegradable bio-based products are opening new avenues for growth. With global consumers and regulators increasingly favoring renewable and sustainable resources, RBD palm oil derivatives are well positioned to meet this rising demand.

Looking ahead to 2040, the sector is projected to grow steadily, though challenges such as volatile prices, environmental scrutiny, and shifting trade rules will test resilience. The World Bank projects prices could approach USD 905 per ton in 2024, reflecting tight supplies in Southeast Asia, before stabilizing as production normalizes after El Niño effects. This volatility underscores the importance of adaptive strategies. Companies that prioritize certified sustainable production, align with evolving policies, and invest in downstream innovations will be best placed to capture value in this evolving market.

In conclusion, the driving forces behind the global RBD palm oil market rest on the balance between sustainability, regulatory adaptation, and innovation. Businesses that successfully align profitability with responsible practices will not only secure market access but also thrive in an increasingly competitive and environmentally conscious global economy.