Global Production and Market Growth

Since 2020, the refined, bleached, and deodorized (RBD) palm oil market has demonstrated consistent growth and remains at the heart of global edible oil supply. In 2020, worldwide palm oil production, including both crude and refined grades, reached about 76 million metric tons. Indonesia stood as the clear leader, producing 57% of total output, while Malaysia followed with 25%. Other producers such as Thailand, Colombia, and Nigeria contributed smaller but still notable shares. By 2023–2024, Indonesia’s output alone had climbed to 44 million tons, while Malaysia produced 19.7 million tons, cementing both countries as the backbone of the world’s RBD palm oil exports. Together, they account for 90% of exports, with Indonesia controlling roughly 52% and Malaysia 38%.

The financial scope of this industry continues to expand. In 2023, the global RBD palm oil market was valued at approximately USD 70 billion. By 2030, analysts expect it to exceed USD 106 billion, with some forecasts suggesting the figure could reach USD 115 billion in the early 2030s. The projected compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 4.5%–6.1% from 2024 to 2033 reflects steady demand, supported by the product’s versatility and wide industrial use.

Consumption patterns also highlight where growth is concentrated. India, China, and the European Union together purchase nearly half of the world’s RBD palm oil exports. India’s strong appetite for edible oils makes it a vital growth driver, while China uses palm oil extensively for both food and industrial purposes. The European Union, meanwhile, is increasingly focused on sustainable sourcing, with regulations and consumer preferences pushing traders toward certified palm oil products.

Expanding Applications and Future Outlook

The versatility of RBD palm oil underpins its demand across multiple industries. In the food industry, it is prized for its stability, texture, and shelf-life benefits, widely used in margarine, baked goods, confectionery, and cooking oils. The global shift toward plant-based diets has further boosted its appeal as a sustainable ingredient.

Beyond food, the oleochemicals sector is expanding, using palm oil derivatives in soaps, detergents, cosmetics, and personal care. This industry is projected to keep rising in line with the booming global personal care market, expected to exceed USD 600 billion by 2025. Meanwhile, the renewable energy sector continues to rely on RBD palm oil as a key feedstock for biodiesel, particularly in Indonesia and Malaysia, where government policies encourage its use to meet clean energy targets.

While growth remains promising, the market is not without risks. Indonesia’s export bans in 2022 disrupted global supply chains, sending prices surging and reminding stakeholders of how geopolitical and policy shifts can ripple worldwide. Climate variability and environmental pressures also remain critical factors shaping supply and sustainability.

Looking ahead to 2040, the global RBD palm oil market is well-positioned for sustained expansion. With Southeast Asia’s dominance in production, rising demand from Asia and Europe, and growing applications in food, oleochemicals, and renewable energy, the opportunities for palm oil traders remain strong. Success, however, will depend on how effectively businesses adapt to evolving regulatory environments, sustainability demands, and market uncertainties.