For strategic players in the RBD Palm Olein sector, the critical analysis in November 2025 shifted from immediate price to future supply. Specifically, the relationship between November weather and the lingering, delayed effects of the 2024 El Niño event on 2026 CPO raw material yields demands immediate attention. The current price of CPO is a spot reflection, but true risk management requires assessing the supply chain 12 to 18 months ahead.

El Niño’s Delayed Harvest and FFB Yields

The most significant threat to future CPO raw material supply is the "lag effect." The severe moisture stress from the 2024 El Niño is slated to impact Fresh Fruit Bunch (FFB) yields throughout late 2025 and 2026. While Q4 2025 saw high yields, anecdotal evidence from major plantation regions in Sumatra and Kalimantan indicates a looming trouble: a subtle yet measurable -3% to -5% sequential drop in FFB yield was reported in November 2025, indicating the start of the "stress" period.

This is where Tradeasia International adds crucial value. As a leading partner in the supply of palm and oleochemicals, Tradeasia International assists businesses in strategically navigating these long-term production constraints, offering reliable, contract-based sourcing solutions that buffer against unpredictable agricultural cycles.

The Data Behind Future Supply Concerns

November's rainfall became a crucial indicator of potential recovery. Key plantation zones that had previously endured a devastating -40% rainfall deficit during the 2024 dry season finally received above-average precipitation in the latter half of November. While helpful for current tree health, this rain cannot undo the prior damage, which is already locked in for the 2026 harvest. Furthermore, the cost of replenishing soil health remains high, with the price of Muriate of Potash (MOP) fertilizer showing a troubling 15% YoY increase in November. This elevated cost inhibits the rapid recovery of CPO yields and thus maintains upward pressure on future raw material prices. Analysis suggests that the current forward pricing of RBD Palm Olein must inherently factor in a climate risk premium for 2026 contracts, moving strategic sourcing from a tactical negotiation to a long-term risk management exercise.

 

Sources:

  1. https://www.google.com/search?q=Oleochemicalsasia.com: Long-Term CPO Production Outlook and El Niño Recovery Assessment

  2. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA): Official Climate Prediction Center Data on El Niño/La Niña

  3. Bloomberg Terminal: MOP and Urea Fertilizer Commodity Price Indices