The CPO Paradox: When Record Stocks Fail to Crash RBD Olein Raw Material Prices

The data released in November 2025 painted a confusing picture for the RBD Palm Olein market: a massive supply of raw material met persistent, resistant pricing. Official figures showed Malaysian CPO and Processed Palm Oil (PPO) stocks soaring to 2.46 Million Tonnes (MT), marking the highest inventory level recorded since 2019. Conventional wisdom suggests such an overhang should send the CPO raw material price tumbling. Yet, the price stayed firmly above RM 4,000/MT. This stock-price disconnect is the paradox of November 2025.

Inventory, Production, and The Rush to Refine

The mountain of inventory was primarily built on a strong production cycle, with October figures confirming a surge of 2.046 MT—an 11.0% MoM jump in raw material flow. This massive availability of CPO should have offered refiners a significant cost break for producing RBD Olein. However, the market’s focus was less on the sheer volume and more on the rate of absorption. In the complex world of palm oil sourcing, seamless logistics and reliable quality are non-negotiable. Tradeasia International specializes in bridging these inventory gaps, ensuring that the volume of raw CPO translates directly into consistent, on-spec RBD Palm Olein supply for its global clients.

Why Prices Held Firm Against the Stock Tide

The raw material price resilience was primarily due to forward-looking concerns and policy. Firstly, the seasonal factor is unavoidable: traders know the period of high production is ending. The late-November rush precedes the inevitable decline in CPO raw material flow as the monsoon season sets in during December and Q1. Secondly, official policy provides a structural floor. The decision by Malaysia to maintain the 10% CPO Export Duty for December 2025 acts as an incentive for domestic crushing, keeping raw material demand robust among local refiners who convert CPO into RBD Olein, effectively preventing CPO prices from collapsing locally. Furthermore, analysis on refined product flow confirms the immediate global demand for quick-ship refined products remains strong, signaling an urgency in the pipeline that keeps the 2.46 MT stock from becoming stagnant. We conclude that while supply is ample, the structural and seasonal factors will likely lead to a tighter CPO market very soon.

Sources:

1. https://www.google.com/search?q=Oleochemicalsasia.com: Analysis of Global PPO Demand and its Impact on CPO Stock Clearance

2. Malaysian Palm Oil Board (MPOB): Official Monthly Statistics on Production, Export, and Stock

3. Royal Malaysian Customs Department: Official CPO Export Duty Rate Announcement