Squeezing the Byproduct: A 2040 Forecast on Refinery Yields, CPO Quality, and Palm Acid Oil Availability

Not all Crude Palm Oil (CPO) is created equal. For Palm Acid Oil buyers, the most critical variable influencing future supply isn't just CPO volume, but its quality. The technical specifications of the CPO feedstock directly determine the yield of Palm Acid Oil produced during refining. This granular, technical insight is often overlooked, but at Tradeasia International, we know it's the difference between anticipating market shifts and reacting to them, allowing us to build more resilient supply chains for our partners.

Why CPO Quality Now Defines PAO Quantity

The chemistry is straightforward: Palm Acid Oil is the result of removing Free Fatty Acids (FFA) from CPO during physical refining. Therefore, a higher FFA level in the CPO feedstock results in a higher yield of Palm Acid Oil. This link is direct: CPO with a 4.5% FFA will produce significantly more Palm Acid Oil per tonne than CPO with a 2.5% FFA. This metric is highly volatile; factors like heavy rainfall during La Niña or harvesting delays can cause FFA levels to spike, temporarily flooding the market with Palm Acid Oil and causing sharp price dislocations. A 1% rise in average FFA across a region's supply can boost byproduct output by thousands of tonnes.

The Paradox of Progress: Better Palm Oil, Less Byproduct

Looking toward 2040, the entire palm industry is focused on improving CPO quality. Mills are investing heavily in better technology and plantation traceability to secure CPO with FFA levels below 2%, as this maximizes their yield of high-value food-grade palm oil. This creates an efficiency paradox for Palm Acid Oil buyers. "Every point we gain in refining efficiency and CPO quality," as one regional manager noted, "we structurally lose in byproduct availability." As plantations become more efficient and CPO quality improves, the average yield of Palm Acid Oil per tonne of CPO refined will decrease. If average CPO feedstock quality improves by just 0.5% across the board by 2035, it could permanently remove hundreds of thousands of tonnes of Palm Acid Oil from the global supply chain, tightening the market indefinitely.

Sources:

1. Palm-Chemicals.com: Palm Acid Oil (Product Specifications)

2. Journal of Palm Oil Research (JOPR): Impact of CPO Quality on Refinery Yields

3. Fastmarkets: Palm Oil Quality Premiums and Market Analysis