Navigating the September Squeeze: Securing Sustainable Palm Stearin in a High-Demand Market

The third quarter brings a familiar yet formidable challenge for global supply chains: the September squeeze. As the confectionery and food industries accelerate production for the end-of-year holidays, the demand for key ingredients like Hydrogenated RBD Palm Stearin surges. This year is no exception, with market forecasts pointing to a demand increase of a staggering 15-20%. Navigating this seasonal volatility requires more than just foresight; it demands a robust and agile supply chain partner.

At Tradeasia International, we understand that securing a stable supply of high-quality palm and oleochemical products during these peak seasons is critical to our clients' success. A reliable partner transforms market volatility from a risk into a strategic advantage, ensuring your production lines keep moving without interruption.

The Widening Gap Between Demand and Certified Supply

The core of the challenge lies not in the total volume available, but in the widening gap between soaring demand and the limited pool of certified sustainable material. While production is scaling, the supply of RSPO Mass Balance (MB) or Segregated (SG) Hydrogenated RBD Palm Stearin is only projected to grow by 8-10%. This critical disparity is creating intense competition for certified products, directly impacting pricing. Financial modeling shows the premium for certified stearin escalating from an average of $50/MT in July to a projected $85/MT for September contracts. This market reality underscores a crucial industry insight: in a volatile market, foresight isn't just about predicting prices; it's about securing quality and compliance long before the vessel is booked.

Strategic Sourcing as a Non-Negotiable

For the 75% of major European manufacturers who have committed to 100% sustainable sourcing, navigating this period is a true test of their supply chain's integrity. With over 90% of the world's certified palm supply originating from Indonesia and Malaysia, deep market relationships and proactive procurement are essential. Waiting for the market to stabilize is a strategy destined to fail. Instead, businesses must engage in strategic sourcing and forward-planning with partners who can provide verifiable assurance. This proactive stance is the only way to secure the necessary volumes without compromising the non-negotiable ESG commitments that underpin modern brand value.

Sources:

1. Q3 2025 Commodity Outlook Report

2. Market Analysis: Palm Stearin Prices Firm Up Ahead of High-Demand Season

3. RSPO 2025 Annual Supply Chain Impact Report