India's Booming Industries Drive Up Demand

Glycerine is more than just a byproduct — it’s a vital ingredient in countless everyday items. From cough syrups and ointments to moisturizers and skincare products, its role as a humectant and solvent makes it essential across industries.

In India, demand is booming. The pharmaceutical industry, now worth around USD 55 billion, is growing fast and expected to more than double by 2030. This growth, driven by both domestic needs and export expansion, is pushing up demand for pharmaceutical-grade glycerine. In fact, API production rose by 9% year-on-year in Q2 2025 alone.

The personal care sector is also expanding rapidly. According to Grand View Research, the Indian market for cosmetics and personal care products is expected to grow from USD 22.8 billion in 2023 to USD 40.8 billion by 2030, with glycerine playing a key role in product formulations thanks to its moisturizing properties.

Biodiesel Mandates and Refinery Outages Squeeze Supply

On the supply side, recent policy changes in Indonesia are reshaping global dynamics. The country’s full implementation of its B40 biodiesel mandate in July 2025 is diverting over 1.5 million tonnes of palm oil annually from glycerine production, as palm oil gets absorbed into the fuel market. Analysts warn that if Indonesia proceeds with a B50 mandate, global glycerine supplies could tighten even further.

Meanwhile, synthetic glycerine isn't picking up the slack. Refinery outages in the U.S. Gulf Coast and Northeast Asia — due to both planned and unexpected shutdowns — are limiting the availability of propylene, a key input for synthetic glycerine. And while crude oil prices have slipped below USD 70 per barrel, they still hover 9% above the five-year average, keeping production costs elevated.

As a result, forward contracts in markets like Mumbai are trading at a 3–4% premium, and ChemAnalyst expects prices to remain high — hovering between ₹97 and ₹105/kg through Q3 2025 — until inventories start to recover.